Investment Vehicles·9 min read

SIP vs PPF vs NPS: which one survives Indian inflation longest?

Side-by-side, after-tax, after-inflation: ₹10,000/month into SIP, PPF, and NPS over 30 years. The winner isn't who you think.

Three sacred Indian retirement instruments. Three loyal followings on Twitter. Three completely different mathematical destinies.

The PPF Maximalists say: guaranteed returns, tax-free, the government can't default on you. The Mutual Fund Maximalists say: equity wins over 30 years, full stop. The NPS Defenders say: look at the tax break, you fools.

All three are partially right. All three are partially propaganda. Let's settle it with the only honest arbitrator: the simulation engine.

The setup

Same investor, same monthly amount, same time horizon, same inflation. We park ₹10,000/month for 30 years in each instrument. Then we compare the inflation-adjusted, post-tax corpus at year 30.

  • SIP (equity mutual fund): 12% expected annual return, LTCG 12.5% above ₹1.25L exemption at exit, no annual tax.
  • PPF: 7.1% guaranteed (current rate, may shift), fully tax-free, 15-year lock-in, optionally extended.
  • NPS: 75% equity (max allowed) + 25% debt, blended ~10% return, 60% lump sum at exit + 40% mandatory annuity at ~6% lifetime payout.

Year 30 — the raw numbers

SIP (equity mutual fund)

₹10,000 × 12 × 30 = ₹36 lakh contributed. At 12% compounding monthly, the corpus reaches roughly ₹3.49 crore. LTCG on gains: gains ≈ ₹3.13cr, exemption ₹1.25L/year × 30 = ₹37.5L spread, effective tax ~₹35 lakh. Post-tax: ~₹3.14 crore.

PPF

₹10,000 × 12 × 30 = ₹36 lakh contributed. PPF caps at ₹1.5L/year, so ₹10K/month = ₹1.2L/year fits cleanly. At 7.1% compounded annually, the corpus reaches ₹1.21 crore. Tax: zero. Post-tax = pre-tax.

NPS (Tier 1, 75/25 equity/debt)

₹10,000 × 12 × 30 = ₹36 lakh contributed. Blended return ~10%, monthly compounding. Corpus at exit: ₹2.28 crore. 60% lump sum tax-free = ₹1.37cr. 40% mandatory annuity = ₹91L corpus, at ~6% annuity rate = ₹54,000/month for life (taxable as income).

The winner — by metric

  • Final usable corpus at year 30: SIP wins (₹3.14cr post-tax) by a country mile.
  • Tax efficiency: PPF wins. Every rupee is tax-free.
  • Risk-adjusted return: PPF wins for risk-averse, SIP wins on Sharpe ratio over 20+ years.
  • Liquidity: SIP wins. PPF is 15-year locked. NPS is locked to 60 with partial withdrawal only for specific reasons.
  • Tax deduction on the way in: NPS wins via 80CCD(1B) extra ₹50K. PPF claims under 80C (which you probably already maxed). SIP gets no deduction.
  • Total wealth at retirement: SIP. Not close.

The catch nobody talks about

SIP's hidden cost: behaviour

The math says SIP wins by 2.5× over PPF. The math also assumes you don't panic-sell in 2008, 2020, or any future drawdown of 30%+. Real-world Indian SIP investors withdraw early roughly 40% of the time during major drawdowns. The behaviour gap reduces realised returns by 1–3% annually — enough to wipe out half the SIP advantage.

PPF's hidden cost: opportunity

7.1% guaranteed sounds great. After 6% inflation, your real return is 1.1%. Over 30 years, your purchasing power roughly doubles. That's fine — but it doesn't build wealth, it preserves it. PPF is a safety bucket, not a wealth engine.

NPS's hidden cost: the annuity trap

40% of your corpus must convert to an annuity at exit. Current annuity rates (~6%) are barely above inflation. You give up principal forever in exchange for a monthly payment that doesn't inflation-adjust. For a healthy 60-year-old, this is a structural drag of ~1–1.5% on the effective return — and the principal never comes back to your family.

The right mix — what actually works

For a salaried Indian aiming for retirement:

  1. Max 80C with PPF (or ELSS if you want equity exposure inside the 80C bucket). This is the unshakeable safety floor.
  2. Add NPS ₹50K/year for the extra 80CCD(1B) deduction. The deduction is real, and the 75% equity exposure helps. Just know that 40% will be force-converted to an annuity at 60.
  3. Put EVERYTHING ELSE into SIP. Diversified equity mutual funds. Step-up by 10% annually as your salary grows. Don't touch it. Don't time the market. Don't check the NAV during a crash.

This blend gives you tax efficiency (PPF + NPS deductions), downside protection (PPF as safety net), and the wealth-creation engine (SIP) that actually compounds you into freedom.

The 30-year arithmetic, summarised

₹10K/month for 30 years buys you:

  • PPF: ₹1.21 crore tax-free. Preserves purchasing power. Doesn't make you wealthy.
  • NPS: ₹1.37cr lump sum + ₹54K/month annuity. Tax break on the way in. Annuity drag on the way out.
  • SIP: ₹3.14 crore post-tax. The wealth-creation winner — if you can stomach 30% drawdowns and not flinch.

Behaviourally, most Indians can stomach exactly one drawdown before they switch to PPF and complain about "market manipulation". That's the real reason PPF wins for the median investor, even if SIP wins on paper.

The cockroach version of the answer

A cockroach doesn't pick one shelter. It uses three: under the fridge (PPF — boring, reliable, always there), behind the bookshelf (NPS — slow to access but state-protected), and in the cracks of the kitchen wall (SIP — exposed, fast, where the food actually is).

Run a 30-year simulation with your real numbers in the SIP-with-inflation calculator or model all three buckets together in the full life-cycle simulator. The right answer depends on your salary, your sleep tolerance, and how many decades you have to compound.

Survive the system. Plan your escape. And stop arguing about PPF vs SIP — use both, plus NPS for the deduction. The cockroach wins because it doesn't bet the colony on one wall.

Run the math yourself

Stop reading. Start simulating.

Frequently asked

What is the difference between SIP, PPF, and NPS for retirement?

SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) in equity mutual funds offers the highest expected returns (~12% pre-tax) with full liquidity but full market risk. PPF (Public Provident Fund) guarantees ~7.1% tax-free with a 15-year lock-in. NPS (National Pension System) is a hybrid equity/debt account with tax benefits under 80CCD but mandatory annuitisation of 40% at exit. Each suits a different risk profile and time horizon.

Which gives the highest returns over 30 years — SIP, PPF, or NPS?

After-inflation and after-tax, SIP in equity mutual funds typically delivers the highest corpus over 30+ years, despite higher volatility and LTCG of 12.5%. PPF returns are tax-free but capped at the prevailing rate (~7.1%), which barely beats inflation. NPS sits in the middle — equity returns capped at 75% allocation, with mandatory annuity reducing flexibility at retirement.

How much SIP do I need to reach ₹1 crore in 20 years?

Assuming 12% annual returns and 0% step-up, you need approximately ₹10,100/month for 20 years to reach ₹1 crore. With a 10% annual SIP step-up (matching salary growth), the required starting SIP drops to ~₹6,000/month. Inflation-adjusted, ₹1 crore in 20 years is worth ~₹31 lakh in today's rupees — so the real target is closer to ₹3 crore nominal.

Can I have all three — SIP, PPF, and NPS?

Yes, and for most salaried Indians, this is the optimal mix. PPF (up to ₹1.5L/year for 80C deduction), NPS (up to ₹50K/year for additional 80CCD(1B) deduction), and SIP (unlimited, for the growth bucket). PPF and NPS handle the tax-advantaged base; SIP handles the wealth-creation engine.

Is NPS better than mutual funds for retirement?

For pure return, no — NPS returns trail diversified equity SIP over 20+ year horizons due to the bond allocation cap and mandatory annuitisation. NPS shines for its additional ₹50K/year tax deduction under 80CCD(1B) and for risk-averse investors who want a state-managed pension structure. As the sole retirement vehicle, it underperforms a disciplined equity SIP.

Published 2026-05-23. © 2026 Cockroach Money. All rights reserved.